Campaign Conundrum

It's a classic awards campaign conundrum: what happens when you have too many damn actors with a shot in the same category? Sometimes, they both manage to ride the wave to nominations, but ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to the win: witness Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi in 2006's Babel. In other cases, one person emerges as the clear favorite. Last year, there was the thrilling Battle of the Brionys, wherein Saoirse Ronan walked away with most of the noms. I thought Ronan and Older Briony Vanessa Redgrave were fab, but I was disappointed that my favorite Briony, Romola Garai, was ultimately left out in the cold. To me, her powerhouse scene -- wherein she comforts a dying soldier -- was more than awards-worthy.

Anyway, there's an interesting situation shaping up with top contender Milk. Sean Penn is pretty much a lock, but what about the wide array of supporting actor possibles? Josh Brolin seems likely -- he ably conveys the slowly disintegrating soul of Milk assassin Dan White, and voters may want to reward him here if the lead actor category is too over-stuffed for W. But he's not the only one who's generating early Oscar talk: he could face competition from co-stars Emile Hirsch and James Franco, both of whom seem to have a legitimate shot. Personally, I'd love to see Franco get the nod -- as Milk's lover Scott Smith, he turns in the kind of quiet, subtle performance that should be recognized, but so rarely is.

At this stage, it's not really clear how the campaign will play out. Three-way tie? Three-way...cancellation? Battle of the Brionys, Part II? We'll see.

--Sarah Kuhn