Handicapping SAG's Best Week Ever

Welcome back, Strike Watchers, and Happy New Year. Before we get started, I'd like to take a quick moment to thank my associates--Richard Verrier, Jonathan Handel, and Dave McNary--for thoroughly cleaning my clock taking care of all of my reporting and writing duties while I was away on vacation, so that I might rest up for another year of union coverage. For those of you who are fascinated by union-palace intrigue--and who among us isn't?--the coming week could prove to be the most exciting time. Maybe ever.

The undercard: On Jan. 9-10, SAG and AFTRA will gather in New York for a meeting of the Joint Wages & Working Conditions Commercial Contract Plenary Committee. Negotiators for each union will sift through recommendations from members to get a rough draft of the proposal they will make to advertisers and advertising agencies. The draft will be fine-tuned and then voted on by a joint meeting of the unions' national boards Feb. 7. This is one of the first official business meetings conducted with top officials for each union since their nasty battle over the film and TV contract last year. The two unions negotiated a truce for the purposes of the commercial deal, and reports from both sides say things are going smoothly. Though the weekend in New York should not have much drama, it could provide some odd, if not altogether uncomfortable, moments.

The main event comes Jan. 12-13, when SAG's national board has a face-to-face meeting to determine whether to send out a strike-authorization ballot to members. SAG leaders say they need the threat of a strike to break their stalemate with TV and film producers over a new three-year contract, a state of limbo that just passed the six-month mark. Moderates on the board--Hollywood-based faction Unite for Strength and the representatives from the New York and Regional Branch divisions--are opposed to a strike because of the economy and the fact that other Hollywood guilds have already accepted similar terms from producers.

Ballots were scheduled to be mailed Jan. 2, but UFS reps asked for a postponement pending a special board meeting. As Verrier reported Dec. 30, there is talk that guild moderates will try to kill the measure altogether, dissolve the negotiating committee in favor of a task force, and perhaps fire national executive director Doug Allen. But because Allen and national president Alan Rosenberg scheduled a face-to-face meeting for a Monday and Tuesday--they're usually held on weekends--several of the New York and regional members might not be able to make it, so the moderates' ability to get what they want is uncertain.

What will happen? As with anything in life, it depends on who shows up. If the Mod Squad arrives with a full contingent (uncertain at best), we think they go 1 for 3 and successfully kill strike authorization. We're just spitballing here, but the guild's more aggressive faction will not put up too much of a fight, for two reasons: 1) The math says strike authorization is D.O.A.; and 2) the referendum is worth more dead than alive; MF will make it front-and-center in their campaign for board and presidential elections in September. (I can almost see the T-shirts now: “Choose Membership First: We Actually Let You Vote.") 

As for the other two items on the moderates' agenda--dissolve committee, fire Allen--my guess is that MF partisans will successfully persuade enough regional board members to save the NED and keep the negotiating committee intact. If the Mod Squad shows up short-handed, then MF will dominate the meeting, the ballots will go out within the week, and the board will name Allen pope.

--Andrew Salomon

Comments

[mheister]

Andrew -

Can you please cite the "math" that says the "strike authorization is DOA"??? Last I checked, the authorization vote had not gone out, so officially, nobody knows. However, in the last actual tangible poll of SAG's far-flung membership - the postcard poll conducted by SAG a couple of months ago - the membership overwhelmingly rejected the AMPTP's "last best final" offer.

Seriously, if you know something solid the rest of don't, please share. You've got the platform.

- Michael Heister