S.A.V. = D.O.A.: A Refresher Course in Basic Math

I received some criticism and questions about yesterday's post, which offhandedly noted that a strike-authorization vote would fail to win passage if sent out to the members. (Actually, I said it would be dead on arrival, but perhaps I should use kinder terms.)

Linked to the remark was an earlier post of mine that sketched out the probability of failure. Perhaps that trenchant analysis was lost amid my criticism of MSNBC, so here again is my arithmetic reasoning postulating rejection of the guild's strike-authorization vote.

My hypothetical model is based on demographic information, anecdotal evidence, and my understanding of the geographic divisions within the guild. First, the demographics. According to Daily Variety, 60 percent of the guild's 120,000 members reside in Hollywood, 25 percent in New York, and 15 percent in the regional branches.

The anecdotal evidence from the town hall meetings in Hollywood say the response from members was overwhelmingly supportive of the guild getting strike authorization. Witnesses have said about 80 percent of the members in L.A. spoke favorably of the measure. Conversely, at the one town hall in New York, the response was overwhelmingly negative, and witnesses say about 75 percent of members in Gotham spoke against strike-authorization and the current guild negotiating team.

Here's the model:

* Let's say 25,000 members, roughly the number of people who vote in any SAG election, choose to cast a ballot. The guild needs 75 percent of those voters, or 18,750, to say yes in order for the national board to have the authority to call a strike.

* Let's also say the vote breaks down precisely on demographic lines: 60 percent of the responses (or 15,000 votes) will come from Hollywood, 25 percent (6,250) from New York, and 15 percent (3,750) from the regions.

* For argument's sake, let's say the anecdotal evidence at the town halls is representative of sentiment in Hollywood, and 80 percent of the vote there goes in favor of strike authorization. Eighty percent of 15,000 equals 12,000 votes, or 6,750 short of the magic number.

*With 10,000 votes still to come from New York and the regions, strike-authorization proponents need 67.5 percent of that vote to win, or 6,750 votes. If the anecdotal evidence from the New York town hall is representative, and 75 percent of New Yorkers vote no, strike-authorization proponents would still lose *even if they win every single vote in the regional branches*.

As for the regional members, they are getting the most work they ever have because of state tax incentives. Does anyone believe they would want to stop the cameras from rolling for six months? I don't think so.

How statistically improbable is the passage of a strike-authorization vote? It's not as unlikely as Barack Obama bringing Jesse Helms back to life and appointing him NEA chair. But it's close.

--Andrew Salomon

P.S.: Interesting post from Jonathan Handel today about SAG's other expired or about-to-expire contracts.

Comments

[mheister]

Thank you Andrew. Interesting analysis.

Your formulation does not take into account SAG's postcard poll, which may more accurately reflect the mood of the membership as a whole than attendance at meetings in either Los Angeles or New York.

You also provide no justification for your view of likely voting patterns in the regions aside from short-term self-interest. If actors outside of LA and NY are interested in pursuing careers with longevity, one may just as easily assume they also would react with horror at the prospect of having their compensation essentially phased out by the moguls' migration of content generation to new media.

I'm not saying your analysis is wrong Andrew, but I think it fair to point out other methods of analysis. Mark Twain famously said there are three types of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics. At this point, we can spin our crystal balls any way we want, but it's still all speculation until a strike authorization vote goes out and the members have spoken.

I will say, however, that for the sake of the future relevancy of the guild I sincerely hope you're wrong.

[VoiceGuy]

The postcard poll is meaningless (or nearly so) in predicting a strike authorization. There was no downside -- none -- to check the box saying "keep trying to get a better deal." It didn't cost anything.

A strike authorization is a far more serious commitment. The fact that the tiny sampling of people who sent in postcards voted as instructed where there was no risk in doing so does not mean that they would take the far more serious step of potentially putting themselves out of work.

Andrew has a good point. Unless the NY Division comes out strongly in favor of strike authorization, it won't happen. I'm not even convinced that the numbers will be that good in Hollywood. People are coming to realize that the arguments about imminent loss of residuals do not withstand scrutiny, and they recognize that there is no reasonable prospect of SAG obtaining New Media terms materially different from what the other guilds obtained, strike or no strike.

VG

[FilmandTVGuy]

I believe the sentiment among Hollywood area SAG members for a strike is running substantailly lower than 80%. Many who feel a strike is ill-advised attended the Town Hall meetings and did not speak (too hostile a crowd.) Many more did not attend at all, feeling that these were little more than Press Conferences for the current SAG leadership to repeat their bullet points ad nauseam. The vibe in the room at these meetings may have felt like 80%, but the reports from the ground (to steal a phrase from CNN) are far different. Sentiment is running STRONGLY against a strike in all corners of SAG. Hence the reason current SAG leadership is re-thinking its strategy. Should be an interesting week ahead...

[VoiceGuy]

I would certainly echo what FilmandTVGuy wrote above. At the Town Hall meeting I attended, the militants were downright intimidating. I certainly had no interest in sticking my head out of the foxhole and having it blown off. Thank God it's a secret ballot (even though the envelopes are bar-coded to let them track who's voting).

The main result of delaying this whole process so much is that what started out as a groundswell of opposition has grown into a tidal wave. I'll be surprised if the strike vote goes any better than about 50/50.

VG