Oh, to be in the Waiting
Place, described by Dr. Seuss in the perennial
graduation gift Oh, the Places You’ll Go!
as “a most useless place.” While SAG supporters frantically phone dual
cardholders pleading with them to vote no and press releases from all three
parties fly across the internets, most of us are just waiting for July 8--this
Tuesday, Tuesday, Tuesday—when the AFTRA ballots are due.
It may be an uncomfortable Waiting Place, though in this reporter’s
opinion far from comparable to the days leading up to the Vietnam War or the
Holocaust.
I’ve actually never been to Saigon or Berlin, Mr. Bart, but I’m pretty sure the threat of Communist and Nazi occupation caused a lot
more panic than the threat of fewer episodes of Samantha Who? this fall.
I digress--but it’s a blog, so that’s okay.
During a conference call hosted by Wachovia Capital Markets
this morning, new-media guru Jonathan Handel outlined three possibilities SAG
and the rest of us may face come Tuesday night. I like Handel: Not only is he
informative and candid on the issues but he hasn’t bought into the worldwide
hysteria incurred by a possible—possible,
people—actors’ strike. In fact, his comments made a SAG walkout sound unlikely.
I think Mr. Bart can come out from under his desk now.
Here’s what could happen, according to Handel:
Scenario 1: AFTRA
members overwhelmingly approve the primetime contract.
“In that case, the message is really sent to SAG that there
is unlikely to be support for a strike authorization,” Handel said. We know
that SAG leaders need 75 percent of voters to give the go-ahead to strike. If,
say, the same 93 percent of AFTRA members who voted to ratify the Network
Code in
April also vote to ratify the Primetime Contract, the future of strike
authorization for SAG looks dim. But Handel did point out that there are plenty
of strike-happy actors out there.
“Ninety to 95 percent of [SAG members] don’t even make
$28,000 a year as actors. In fact, something like 75 percent of the union
doesn’t make even make $1,000 or $5,000 a year acting. So there are a lot of
people for whom a strike would not be much if any skin off their noses. Those
people may be more inclined to vote for strike authorization.”
Still, the message to SAG would be clear: A good chunk of
your membership is fine with the AFTRA pact and doesn’t want to walk out.
Scenario 2: AFTRA
members overwhelmingly defeat the Primetime Contract.
“I think it’s unlikely, but it’s possible,” Handel said. “In
that case, I think you would see SAG going out for a strike authorization. It
would take a few days after the 8th before [SAG seeks authorization], and then
the strike-authorization process takes two to three weeks of balloting by mail
and so forth. Then they’d have to decide whether they’d have to call a strike,
probably negotiate some more first. So the take-away is we wouldn’t see a
strike at the earliest until late July.” Actually, it sounds more like we
wouldn’t see a strike until August.
Scenario 3: The AFTRA
deal passes by a small margin
Handel foretold, “At that point what we can expect SAG to do
is declare a moral victory and to say, ‘Look, there is significant opposition
to the AFTRA deal. Even given that members are generally likely to vote in
favor of ratification of a deal recommended by [AFTRA’s] leadership….
Nonetheless, we drove the percentage down.”
SAG might want to use that leverage to seek strike
authorization, but although they’d have a better chance of getting it than in
Scenario 1, they still wouldn’t have much leverage or power. The same would
apply if AFTRA’s deal didn’t pass by a small margin: SAG could go for a strike
authorization, but getting that 75 percent still would be doubtful.
To sum up, Handel said it’s about time for SAG’s Hollywood leaders to get realistic and do some
soul-searching. “There’s sort of an Elisabeth Kübler-Ross
process of grieving that the SAG leadership is ultimately going to have to go
through. They’re going to have to accept that their hope of a strike and the
ultimate power is dead or dying, and there’s a phase of denial, bereavement,
and eventually acceptance….
“They’ve promised a lot to the membership,” he continued.
“At the end of the day though, they’re going to have to adjust to reality, and
then the parties will have to actually sit down and make a deal. That whole
process of adjustment and then deal-making is going to take weeks. You wouldn’t
see a deal at the earliest…until the end of July.”
At which time I think “the Allens” will need a Pick Me Up
Bouquet and good dose of Dr. Seuss.
--Lauren Horwitch
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