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Tony Predictions

Now that the Outer Critics Circle and the Drama Desk have announced their nominees, it's time to make some Tony predictions. The major difference between these award groups and the Tonys is that the OCC and the DD include Off-Broadway while the Tonys are strictly for Main Stem fare. That means shows that played Off-Broadway last season like "The Scottsboro Boys" and "Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson" are not eligible for the first two awards, but will be up for Tonys. This could put a wrinkle in some categories like Best Musical where I think "Scottsboro" will be remembered. Here are my picks in the major categories. The nominations will be announced on Tues. May 3, followed by the nominees press event on Wed. May 4. I'll be there with my handy (but now obsolete) flipcam.

Best Play: "Good People"; "Jerusalem"; "The Motherf**ker with the Hat"; "War Horse."

(The dazzling spectacle of "War Horse" should edge out the competition and cross the Tony finish line first.)

Best Musical: "The Book of Mormon"; "Catch Me If You Can"; "The Scottsboro Boys"; "Sister Act."

(Despite its super-racy dialgoue, "Mormon" is the shoe-in.)

 Best Play Revival: "Born Yesterday"; "The Importance of Being Earnest"; "The Merchant of Venice"; "The Normal Heart"

("The Normal Heart" is theatrical dynamite and will blow the competition away.) 

Best Musical Revival: "Anything Goes"; "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying."

(There are only two possibilities in this category so it wasn't too diffiuclt to pick the nominees. For the winner, it could go either way. "Anything Goes" is my favorite. I called it "perfection" in my review, but "How to Succeed" has got Harry Potter magic going for it--not at Hogwarts, but at the box office. I'll still say "Anything" will go for the Tony.)

Best Drama Actor:

Brian Bedford, "The Importance of Being Earnest"

Bobby Cannavale, "The Mother f**ker with the Hat"

Joe Mantello, "The Normal Heart"

Al Pacino, "The Merchant of Venice"

Mark Rylance, "Jerusalem"

(Brian Bedford really should be in the Featured Actor category--where he is for the Outer Critics and the Drama Desks--but he's been judged a Leading Actor by the Tony Committee. This is too bad, because he would have won the Tony in that slot, and he will probably cop the OCC and DD. As it stands, Mark Rylance is unstoppable for his bravura performance in "Jerusalem" and voters will also want to honor his equally dazzling work in "La Bete.") 

Best Drama Actress:

Nina Arianda, "Born Yesterday"

Edie Falco, "The House of Blue Leaves"

Frances McDormand, "Good People"

Lily Rabe, "The Merchant of Venice"

Vanessa Redgrave, "Driving Miss Daisy"

(Again there is a category disparity between awards. OCC says Edie Falco is a leading actress while the DD deems her as featured. Since her name is above the title and she's featured in the TV commercials for "Blue Leaves" with her co-star Ben Stiller, the Tonys will probably put here in the lead. Ironically, Swoosie Kurtz won the 1986 Best Featured Actress Tony for the same role in the Lincoln Center revival for the same role and was nomianted for the Drama Desk for Best Leading Actress. Broadway newcomer Nina Arianda will probably win.) 

Best Musical Actor

Norbert Leo Butz, "Catch Me If You Can"

Josh Gad, "Book of Mormon"

Daniel Radcliffe, "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying"

Tony Sheldon, "Priscilla Queen of the Desert"

Aaron Tveit, "Catch Me If You Can"

(As reported in my previous blog, Daniel Radcliffe could actually win for giving an okay-but-not-fantastic performance because expectations were so low for the Harry Potter star in his Broadway musical debut. Butz, Gad, Sheldon, and Tveit share the spotlight with male co-stars in their shows, so I will go out on a limb and say Radcliffe is the probable winner.)

Best Musical Actress

Sutton Foster, "Anything Goes"

Beth Leavel, "Baby It’s You!"

Patina Miller, "Sister Act"

Donna Murphy, "The People in the Picture"

Sherie Rene Scott, "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown"

(I just didn't get the critical carping about Foster being miscast in "Anything Goes." I thought she was an outstanding Reno Sweeney. Leavel, Murphy, and Scott were commended for giving stellar performances in less-than-stellar shows. So that leaves the exquisite Miller. "Sister Act" did receive some mixed notices, but overall, it's been favorably received. Foster has already won for "Thoroughly Modern Millie," so Miller might benefit from Broadway's wish to award another newcomer. I'm going to give the edge to her.)   

(Photo of "The Normal Heart": Joan Marcus)

--David Sheward



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I'm seeing most predictions are leaving out Benjamin Walker for Best Actor I think he will make it to most people's surprise.

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